In an August 7 post on X, Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform, announced that the outcome of the United States presidential election is now a “tossup.” Republican candidate Donald Trump holds a slight lead with 51% odds, while Democratic nominee Kamala Harris trails closely with 48%. This marks a significant shift for Trump, who had a strong lead since June.
Polymarket’s Role in Election Predictions
Polymarket allows users to bet on real-world event outcomes using cryptocurrencies. The platform’s estimates are derived from over $500 million worth of live bets on the upcoming US presidential election in November.
- Trump vs. Harris: Approximately $67 million has been wagered on a Trump win, while about $54 million supports a Harris victory.
- Low-Probability Bets: Users have placed substantial bets on less likely outcomes, such as former First Lady Michelle Obama becoming the 47th president, which currently has 1% odds and $46 million in bets.
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Shifting Political Landscape
Vice President Kamala Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee in July after President Joe Biden decided not to seek another term, officially securing the nomination on August 6. National polls showed Trump expanding his lead over Biden in July following a disappointing debate performance by Biden. However, this trend reversed sharply after Biden endorsed Harris.
Growth and Future Plans for Polymarket
Polymarket has seen rapid growth, surpassing $1 billion in total betting volume in July, and increasing to over $1.1 billion, according to Dune Analytics. While it is primarily known for political event predictions, Polymarket also features markets for crypto, sports, business, and the 2024 Olympic games. The platform’s founder is reportedly considering implementing fees in the future to sustain its growth.
