With less than three weeks until the 2024 U.S. presidential election, concerns about potential manipulation on decentralized prediction markets like Polymarket are growing. The rising odds of former President Donald Trump’s victory have raised eyebrows, with one major bettor, known as “Fredi9999,” playing a significant role in influencing the market.
Trump’s Rising Odds and Manipulation Concerns
Trump’s odds of winning the election surged to a record 60.2% on Polymarket as of October 16, sparking concerns among some observers. Notably, this shift in odds appears disconnected from any significant real-world events that would justify such a dramatic change in public sentiment. According to Alex Momot, founder and CEO of Peanut Trade, this suggests that what is happening on Polymarket might be shaping public perception rather than reflecting it.
“The situation on Polymarket is now influencing the real world, where many people believe what they see on the platform,” Momot explained. He pointed out that the upcoming U.S. presidential election will serve as a key test for assessing the reliability and integrity of prediction markets, especially as bettors look to them for insight on real-world events.
Major Bettor “Fredi9999” and His Influence
The user “Fredi9999” has been identified as a whale, holding more than $20 million worth of pro-Trump bets. This individual’s influence on Trump’s odds has raised concerns of potential manipulation, with some suggesting that Fredi’s activity is artificially inflating Trump’s chances on Polymarket.
In addition, pseudonymous political bettor “Domer” has claimed that Fredi might control several of the top pro-Trump accounts on Polymarket. Domer noted that the accounts in question exhibit similar behavior, receiving large deposits from Kraken, a cryptocurrency exchange, and immediately placing significant bets on Trump. Domer highlighted an instance where one account placed enough bets to drive Trump’s odds of winning the popular vote from 26% to 39% in just a few hours.
Evaluating Prediction Market Manipulation
As the U.S. presidential election draws closer, the integrity of decentralized prediction markets like Polymarket is under scrutiny. The influence of a single bettor—or potentially a coordinated group—raises questions about how trustworthy these platforms are as indicators of public sentiment. While prediction markets are often seen as accurate forecasting tools, the possibility of manipulation threatens their credibility.
In the coming weeks, the behavior of top bettors, such as Fredi9999, will likely face closer examination as analysts and participants alike seek to understand whether these markets are truly reflecting voter sentiment or are being artificially influenced.
