Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s probability of retaking the White House soared to an all-time high on Saturday following a shooting at a rally in Pennsylvania, according to traders on Polymarket.
Incident and Immediate Aftermath
A Secret Service spokesman confirmed that Trump was “safe” after the shooting, according to The New York Times. The incident resulted in the death of the suspected gunman and a spectator. Photos and video footage of a defiant Trump, with blood on his face, pumping his fist in the air, quickly spread across social media. This event occurred amid growing discussions about the frailty and gaffes of his opponent, incumbent President Joe Biden.
Market Reactions
Shares in Polymarket’s contract on whether Trump will win the presidency rose by ten cents, reaching 70 cents. This indicates that the market now sees a 70% chance of Trump winning in November. Polymarket uses smart contracts on the Polygon blockchain and settles bets in USDC, a stablecoin trading 1:1 with the dollar.
Meme tokens named after Trump also surged. For instance, the MAGA token increased by 34% to $8.38, while the satirical TREMP token climbed 67% to $0.6471. Conversely, the BODEN token, named after Biden, fell by 15% to $0.0333115. These tokens have emerged as informal betting markets on the election, though unlike prediction markets, PoliFi tokens do not payout based on the election’s outcome.
Also Read: Kamala Harris’ Odds for Democratic Nomination Surge on Polymarket
Broader Cryptocurrency Market Impact
The CoinDesk 20 index, representing the overall cryptocurrency market, increased by 3.31% over 24 hours. Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, rose by 3.26% to $59,735.17. Trump’s strong support for cryptocurrency has been a notable aspect of his campaign, with plans to speak at a Bitcoin conference in Nashville this month and a Republican platform that opposes the Biden administration’s regulatory actions against the crypto industry.
Polymarket and PredictIt Trends
Polymarket, founded by Shayne Coplan four years ago, has experienced high trading volumes in 2024 due to political betting enthusiasm ahead of the U.S. election. The U.S. presidential winner contract on Polymarket has seen a record $252 million in bets, setting a new high for both the company and crypto-based prediction markets.
Similarly, PredictIt, a traditional betting site, saw Trump’s shares rise from 59 cents before the shooting to 66 cents, eventually stabilizing at 65 cents.
