As the United States presidential election approaches, the decentralized predictions platform Polymarket has experienced a surge in activity, hitting $100 million in monthly trading volume in June. This spike comes as bettors place significant wagers on the outcome of the 2024 presidential election, now just four months away.
Betting on the Presidential Election
At the moment, there are over $203 million in bets on who will win the presidential race, spread across 17 different prediction markets. Former President Donald Trump is currently leading with a 62% chance of winning, representing $24.7 million in bets. In contrast, President Joe Biden’s odds have dropped from 34% to 21%, with $23.9 million wagered on his potential re-election. This decline followed a less-than-stellar debate performance on June 28.
Rising Stakes for Other Candidates
The odds for other Democratic candidates, such as Gavin Newsom, Kamala Harris, and Michelle Obama, have increased as speculation grows about Biden’s candidacy. Betting markets related to Biden potentially dropping out of the race have also seen significant activity. For instance, the market predicting “Biden drops out of the presidential race” now has a 43% chance, while “Biden drops out by July 4” stands at 9%, accumulating over $10 million in bets.
Additional Betting Markets
Other markets have drawn attention as well, including bets on the unlikely presidential bids of Kanye West and Elizabeth Warren, both showing less than a 1% chance of success.
Polymarket’s Growth and Expansion
Polymarket, which operates on the Ethereum sidechain Polygon, reported a monthly trading volume of $109.9 million in June, marking its first time surpassing the $100 million threshold. This represents a 620% increase compared to the trading volumes from the previous five months. The number of active traders also surged by 115% to 29,266 in June.
The platform’s total value locked (TVL) is now $40.2 million, reflecting a 69% increase over the last 30 days. Beyond political markets, Polymarket has also seen significant volumes in cryptocurrency prices and the UEFA European Football Championship 2024 markets.
Investment and Industry Views
Since its launch in June 2020, Polymarket has raised $70 million, with backing from Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin and venture capital firm Founders Fund. Yuga Cohler, an engineering lead at Coinbase, praised decentralized prediction markets for their potential to provide unbiased information and advance societal progress. In a June 30 post on X, he remarked, “Prediction markets are freedom-preserving technology that move societies forward.”
