The feverish speculation over the upcoming United States presidential election has propelled the crypto prediction platform Polymarket to record-breaking volumes. Just two weeks into July, the platform has seen its highest-ever monthly volume.
Record-Breaking Volumes
According to Dune Analytics, Polymarket recorded $116.4 million in volume this month, surpassing the $111.5 million achieved in June, the previous record. This increase highlights the significant interest and activity driven by bets on the presidential election outcome.
Political Betting Trends
Much of this volume comes from speculators betting on the U.S. presidential election, with political traders wagering a staggering $263.5 million on which candidate will likely win on November 4. As of now, Donald Trump remains the favorite among prediction traders with 69% odds of victory. Current President Joe Biden follows at 19%, Vice President Kamala Harris at 6%, and former First Lady Michelle Obama at 2%.
Also Read: Polymarket Shows 70% Chance of Trump Victory Post-Shooting
Overall Wagering and Key Developments
Since the beginning of the year, a total of $471.9 million has been wagered on Polymarket across various events, including politics, finance, sports, and crypto.
In a significant move, Polymarket has brought on election analyst and statistician Nate Silver as an advisor. According to a July 16 report from Axios, Silver emphasized that prediction markets are not just about financial speculation but also help people understand broader sentiment during turbulent times. “Probabilities really matter when you’re trying to make plans,” Silver said.
Interestingly, Silver believes that Trump’s decision to pick crypto-friendly Ohio Senator JD Vance as his running mate could harm his campaign, adding a layer of complexity to the election bets.
Series B Funding and Market Reach
On May 14, Polymarket closed a $70 million Series B funding round led by Peter Thiel’s Founder Fund, with participation from notable figures, including Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin. Despite being unavailable to U.S. traders, Polymarket remains a popular platform for speculating on American political events.
