Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction platform, is under fire after resolving a market predicting a TikTok ban in the United States to “Yes.” The decision, announced on January 20, has sparked accusations of manipulation and criticism of the platform’s dispute resolution process.
The Controversial Market
The market, titled “TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?”, saw a trading volume of $120 million. On January 19, the US Supreme Court upheld a law banning TikTok, citing national security risks related to its Chinese parent company, ByteDance. TikTok displayed a message notifying users that the app would no longer be accessible, seemingly confirming the ban.
The Biden administration justified the ban by claiming ByteDance posed an “unacceptable threat to national security” due to alleged data collection on behalf of a “designated foreign adversary.”
However, confusion emerged when TikTok announced on January 20 that it would remain accessible for an additional 75 days. President Donald Trump had temporarily halted the ban to negotiate terms with ByteDance.
This led many Polymarket users to argue that TikTok had not been fully banned, as the app remained operational for most users in the US.
User Reactions
The resolution to “Yes” sparked outrage among bettors who felt the decision was unfair. One user, identified as Spot, criticized the platform, calling the outcome “disgusting” and labeling Polymarket a “scam.” Another user pointed out that the market description did not account for temporary extensions or exceptions.
In response, a petition demanding accountability for alleged manipulation has been created but has so far garnered fewer than 100 signatures.
Polymarket’s Dispute Resolution Process
Polymarket’s prediction markets rely on UMA’s Optimistic Oracle (OO) for initial dispute outcomes. If disagreements arise, the dispute can escalate to UMA’s Data Verification Mechanism (DVM) for final resolution.
In this case, Polymarket bypassed the DVM and resolved the market directly to “Yes,” which has fueled accusations of bias and manipulation.
This controversy is not Polymarket’s first. In May 2024, users contested a resolution involving an Ethereum ETF market. A month later, the platform faced criticism for refunding bets on a market about Barron Trump’s alleged involvement in a memecoin, overruling UMA’s decision.
Amid the controversy, Polymarket is reportedly seeking $50 million in funding to improve its platform. Plans include introducing tokens to let users validate outcomes, potentially adding transparency to the resolution process.
The company has yet to comment on the backlash over the TikTok ban market.
