A recent analysis of Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform, shows that only 12.7% of its user wallets have made profits. The majority of participants earned less than $100, according to data provided by the onchain analytics tool, Layerhub.
Most Polymarket Users Face Losses
Layerhub’s data reveals that out of 171,113 crypto wallets on Polymarket, 149,383 (or 87.3%) did not report profits. Only 21,730 wallets, making up 12.7% of the total, showed profitable outcomes. Of these profitable accounts, just 2,138 wallets managed to earn over $1,000, while most users saw gains below $100. Additionally, around 7,400 wallets reported profits in the $100–$1,000 range.
High Volume Trading Driven by Global Events
Polymarket has processed approximately 10.8 million trades. From October 6 to 8, the platform recorded over 300,000 trades daily, likely influenced by significant world events, such as ongoing international conflicts and the upcoming U.S. presidential election. However, engaging in these markets remains costly for many traders. It’s also important to note that multiple wallets may belong to a single user, who might use various accounts to place high-risk bets.
The trading patterns suggest varied levels of activity among Polymarket users. Nearly 25,000 wallets have executed more than 50 trades, and about 32,000 have conducted between 20 and 50 trades. In contrast, almost 58,000 wallets show only one to five trades, indicating that many users engage infrequently.
Growing Interest Despite Low Profit Margins
Despite the low profitability for most users, interest in Polymarket remains strong. As of October 9, open interest on the platform — the total value of unsettled contracts — reached $161.1 million. This suggests that crypto enthusiasts remain engaged, despite the financial risks associated with betting on global events.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently weighed in on the platform’s potential. On October 6, he tweeted that Polymarket could more accurately forecast the 2024 U.S. presidential election results compared to traditional polling methods. At the time of his statement, former President Donald Trump held a three-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in Polymarket’s predictions.
