Technology giant Nvidia outpaced Bitcoin in returns over the past decade, but cryptocurrency executives believe a repeat performance is highly improbable.
Expert Opinions
On May 24, Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten asserted on platform X that Nvidia has a “near zero chance” of outperforming Bitcoin in the coming decade. Similarly, investment strategist Lyn Alden expressed a preference for Bitcoin over Nvidia for the next ten years, noting that Nvidia is one of the few assets that has outperformed Bitcoin over the past ten years.
Historical Performance
From May 23, 2014, to May 23, 2024, Nvidia (NVDA), known for producing chips used in artificial intelligence (AI) models, saw a return of 21,558%, compared to Bitcoin’s 13,048%, according to Statmuse data. However, in the past three months, since the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on January 10, Bitcoin slightly outperformed Nvidia, with returns of 31.7% versus 30.2%.
Long-Term Investments
The Kobeissi Letter highlighted that a $10,000 investment in Nvidia stock in 1999 would be worth $25.3 million today. Daniel Sempere Pico questioned whether Nvidia was considered a riskier investment back in 2014, noting that both Bitcoin and AI had less widespread adoption at the time. Pico suggested that predicting AI’s rise in 2014 was challenging, but some foresaw Bitcoin’s potential.
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Risk and Adoption
Pico speculated on the relative risks of investing in Nvidia and Bitcoin in 2014. Meanwhile, Sina, co-founder of 21st.capital, argued on X that financial assets like Bitcoin have broader network effects compared to AI. Sina noted, “There are no network effects in AI. There are multiple layers of network effects in money.”
While optimistic forecasts exist for Bitcoin’s performance in the next 24 months, caution is also advised. On March 4, Cointelegraph reported former physics professor Giovanni Santostasi’s “Power Law” model predicts Bitcoin could peak at $210,000 in January 2026 before potentially dropping to $60,000.
