Vice President Kamala Harris saw a significant increase in her odds of becoming the Democratic nominee for president this year. Traders on Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market platform, dramatically boosted her chances on Tuesday.
Harris’ Rising Odds
The “Yes” shares for Harris receiving the Democratic nomination traded as high as 31 cents in the afternoon, indicating a 31% chance of her nomination, up from 7% earlier in the day. These shares later settled at 23 cents. Each share pays out $1 in USDC, a stablecoin pegged to the U.S. dollar, if the prediction comes true.
Biden’s Status and Support for Harris
Although President Joe Biden remains the presumptive Democratic nominee, some supporters are urging him to step aside in favor of Harris, especially following his recent debate performance against Donald Trump. Representative James Clyburn (D-S.C.) voiced support for Harris on television, suggesting bolstering her position whether she remains Vice President or runs for President. Additionally, former Congressman Tim Ryan wrote in a Newsweek op-ed that “Kamala Harris Should Be the Democratic Nominee for President in 2024.” The Wall Street Journal also described Harris as “Biden’s Likeliest Replacement.”
Prediction Market Trends
The trend on PredictIt, a traditional prediction market platform, mirrored Polymarket’s activity. “Yes” shares for Harris more than doubled to 35 cents on PredictIt, where bets are settled in dollars. PredictIt’s volume for the Democratic nomination question totals $31 million, while Polymarket’s volume reached $75 million.
Regulatory Landscape
Polymarket operates outside the U.S. due to a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, whereas PredictIt is allowed to operate in the country under a regulatory exemption. Tuesday marked Polymarket’s fifth-largest volume day in its four-year history, with $5.7 million in trading. June was the first month Polymarket surpassed $100 million in volume.
Polymarket’s largest contract, with $211 million in bets, asks who will win the U.S. presidency in November. Trump is currently favored, with a 66% chance of victory.
In parallel to Harris’ rising odds, KAMA, a meme coin named after the vice president, saw its price more than double over 24 hours, reaching $0.007815 on Tuesday.
