A French national known as “Théo” has placed roughly $38 million in bets on Polymarket, predicting a win for Donald Trump in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. According to a Wall Street Journal report on November 1, Théo controls four Polymarket accounts under the names Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie, all heavily betting on Trump to secure both the Electoral College and popular vote. Théo clarified to WSJ reporters that his motivation is purely financial, with “no political agenda” behind the bets.
Big Wager Contrasts with U.S. Polling Data
Polymarket data indicates Trump is currently favored with 60.3% odds, despite U.S. polls showing a tight race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of Election Day on November 5. This heavy betting contrasts with national polling, which suggests a near-equal split between the two candidates. Théo’s major investments, including $27 million on an Electoral College win and $7 million on the popular vote, could result in a significant payday if Trump secures victory.
Non-U.S. Traders and Polymarket’s Influence on Betting Odds
Unlike U.S.-based prediction platforms like Kalshi, Polymarket operates outside the United States, allowing international participants like Théo to place substantial bets. With early voting ending in many U.S. states on November 1, the results may not be announced for several days post-Election Day due to the anticipated closeness of the race. In the final days of the campaign, Vice President Harris has focused on key issues in a “closing argument” speech but has largely avoided discussing digital assets.
As Election Day approaches, Théo’s high-stakes bets highlight the unique influence of international speculators on Polymarket’s betting odds, impacting how the public perceives the chances of each candidate in the 2024 U.S. election.
