As the 2024 US presidential election approaches, Bitcoin could be on track to reach new record highs, according to on-chain data and technical analysis. The contest between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in November is anticipated to impact market sentiment, potentially driving Bitcoin prices upward.
Historical Patterns and Potential Bottoms
Bitcoin may have hit a local bottom on August 5, 2024, during a global market downturn, when its price dropped to a six-month low of around $49,500. This aligns with patterns observed in previous election years, where Bitcoin typically finds its local low in the third quarter, particularly in July or August. Past cycles in 2012, 2016, and 2020 show that these bottoms often precede strong upward momentum, leading to new record highs after the elections.
The “Left-Translated Cycle” and Bullish Momentum
Technical analyst SuperBro has highlighted the possibility of Bitcoin resuming its uptrend as the November election nears. He referenced the “left-translated cycle” theory, which suggests that Bitcoin’s bullish cycles are starting earlier and peaking sooner than in the past. This theory gains support from the fact that Bitcoin’s most recent peak occurred a month before its fourth halving in April 2024, a deviation from previous cycles where peaks followed the halving event.
If this theory holds true, Bitcoin could begin its ascent earlier than expected, potentially reaching a new all-time high before the election. This early rally might surprise slower-moving market participants, leaving them on the sidelines as prices surge.
Fundamental Factors and Speculative Buying
Beyond technical factors, fundamental aspects could also drive Bitcoin higher. Donald Trump’s positive stance on Bitcoin and the possibility of favorable regulatory changes under different administrations may encourage speculative buying. This, in turn, could accelerate Bitcoin’s price increases as election day approaches.
With Trump’s improving odds in the election, as indicated by the crypto betting service Polymarket, market participants are closely watching the impact on Bitcoin prices, anticipating a potential rally leading up to November 2024.
