Markus Thielen, head of research at Matrixport, stated that “smart investors quietly used the recent U.S. inflation print as a confirmation signal to buy Bitcoin – and other cryptos.” He also noted that most of the gains this month were driven by institutional investors in the U.S.
However, a Mizuho survey found that retail investors likely shied away from crypto despite bitcoin’s rally this month. Investors are now awaiting the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next week, in which a 25 bp rate hike is widely expected. Bitcoin could be pressured if the Fed sticks to its hawkish views.
Technical
Bitcoin traded in the $22K-$23K range this week. The overall crypto market cap is currently $1.06T, up 0.6% over Thursday, according to CoinMarketCap. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is currently posting a weekly gain of approximately 2% as bullish momentum continues.
This positive sentiment has been reinforced by the recent occurrence of a “golden cross” pattern in the BTC-USD chart, which is seen as a bullish signal for the cryptocurrency.
The golden cross is a technical analysis pattern that occurs when the short-term moving average (50-day) of a stock or asset crosses above its long-term moving average (200-day). This pattern is seen as a bullish signal, as it indicates that the asset is entering a long-term uptrend.
The past week saw a significant increase in selling volume, reaching $38 billion. According to volume flow, buying volume was at $37.6 billion. This represents $400 million net selling volume.
It’s worth noting that this increase in selling volume is a positive sign for the market. When there is a high volume of selling, it indicates that there is strong demand for the assets being sold. This, in turn, can lead to higher prices and a more robust market overall.
However, it’s also important to consider the buying volume in relation to the selling volume. The fact that buying volume was only slightly lower than selling volume suggests that there is a healthy balance between buyers and sellers in the market. This can help to stabilize prices and prevent large fluctuations.
Halving cycle
Additionally, the halving cycle has been a theory used to predict Bitcoin tops, bottoms, and turns for some time, and so far it hasn’t failed. We can see that, since its inception, Bitcoin’s price follows very clear dynamics before and after each of its halving events, where the mining reward of Bitcoin is halved. Following halving events, Bitcoin rallied for around 2 years. This is followed by a bear market and a consolidation phase as we approach the next halving event.
For reference, last time, Bitcoin bottomed 517 days before its halving. Bitcoin struck a peak just under 20 days after the halving. As we are approaching the next halving event, investors are keeping a close watch on the market to see if the halving cycle will repeat itself.
Regulatory news
In terms of regulatory news, the Federal Reserve denied Custodia Bank’s application to access its payment system as its risk management framework was “insufficient” to address concerns over illegal activities. The SEC is also said to be intensifying scrutiny of registered investment advisors who directly or indirectly have custody of client crypto assets.
Senior White House officials have also called on Congress to expand regulators‘ powers to prevent crypto misuse and mitigate conflicts of interest. Additionally, the Dutch central bank fined Coinbase Europe €3.33M for providing crypto services without registration. The firm disagrees with the enforcement order.
In terms of job cuts, crypto exchange Gemini is reducing its headcount by an additional 10% following the bankruptcy of lender Genesis. The exchange has made at least three rounds of job cuts in the past eight months. London-based crypto exchange, Luno, owned by Digital Currency Group, is also slashing 35% of its workforce.
In other news, Moody’s is said to be in the early stages of developing a scoring system for stablecoins, reportedly analyzing up to 20 such tokens. Mango Labs, the firm behind crypto exchange Mango Markets, has also sued Avraham Eisenberg for $47M as he allegedly converted $114M from its depositors into his own accounts via “fraud”.
Seeking Alpha author, The Digital Trend, remains skeptical of bitcoin’s recent rally and believes “even if a bottom is in, there is no need to chase here.” Crypto-related stocks that ended higher on Friday include Cipher Mining (CIFR) +16.7%, Coinbase (COIN) +15.8%, Robinhood Markets (HOOD) +7.8%, and BIT Mining (BTCM) +7.6%.
Coinbase’s stock (COIN) spiked 15.8% on Friday as bullish sentiment across the broader cryptocurrency market, along with equities, continues. Despite being fined €3.33M by the central bank of the Netherlands on Thursday for providing crypto services without registering, COIN closed Friday’s session at $61.37 a share. It’s highest level since November 1, 2022, just days before onetime rival FTX (FTT-USD) imploded.
Despite recent negative crypto and macroeconomic newsflow, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization broke above $1 trillion on January 21. An encouraging sign is that derivatives metrics are not showing increased demand from bearish traders at the moment.
