Bitcoin is poised for what one analyst has dubbed “batshit season,” with the potential to reach $150,000 by the end of the year. However, other indicators suggest that a wave of short-term selling could derail this anticipated rally.
The Case for a Massive Surge
Jamie Coutts, an analyst with RealVision, predicts a dramatic rise in Bitcoin’s price based on historical patterns. In an August 26 post on X, Coutts emphasized that unless something significant has changed, Bitcoin is still on track for a meteoric rise, which RealVision founder Raoul Paul refers to as the “Banana Zone.”
Coutts pointed to Bitcoin’s past two bull cycles, where the cryptocurrency hit new all-time highs within 365 days after the local US dollar Index (DXY) peaks. Based on this pattern, Coutts forecasts that Bitcoin could more than double from its current levels, soaring from around $64,000 to as high as $150,000 by the end of this year.
Also Read: Bitcoin Runes Records 15.6 Million NFT Transactions in Just Four Months
Short-Term Selling Pressure Looms
Not everyone shares this bullish outlook. CryptoQuant researcher ManagerXBT highlights a potential roadblock: the reactivation of short-term Bitcoin sellers. In an August 27 research note, ManagerXBT pointed out that while Bitcoin enjoyed a strong rally last week, indicators suggest that some traders are preparing to sell.
ManagerXBT noted that 33,155 Bitcoin were recently moved by short-term holders, as shown by the 1-week to 1-month spent output age bands. This movement could signal imminent selling pressure. He warned that if this trend continues, Bitcoin could face a significant pullback, urging traders to exercise caution in the coming days.
Despite the recent price gains—Bitcoin rose 6.2% on August 23 and has held above the $63,000 support level—many Bitcoin derivatives traders remain cautious. The Bitcoin futures premium, a key indicator of risk appetite, has stagnated around 6% for the past month. This indicates that professional traders are hesitant to take on leveraged long positions, reflecting skepticism about the sustainability of the recent price rally.
