Bitcoin’s recent price decline since the April 2024 halving is drawing comparisons to market movements before the 2016 bull run, according to seasoned trader Peter Brandt. In an August 5 post on X, Brandt highlighted that the current decline parallels the post-halving market behavior observed between 2015 and 2017.
Historical Comparison
Brandt noted the similarities in market corrections following each halving event. In 2016, Bitcoin’s halving on July 9 led to a price of $650, followed by a decline to $474—a 27% drop—before the market surged to a high of $20,000 in December 2017. The current market scenario shows a similar pattern, with Bitcoin dropping 26% from its post-halving price of $64,962 to below $50,000.
Analysts Weigh In
While some experts see potential for further declines, others believe Bitcoin may recover quickly. On August 5, Bitcoin’s price dropped sharply to $49,221, a 20% decrease from its peak of $70,000 in late July. However, it showed signs of recovery, bouncing back to $56,000 during early trading in Asia on August 6.
Also Read: Bitcoin Slips to $62K as Bulls Bet on M2 Money Supply Growth
Benjamin Cowen, founder of ITC Crypto, compared the current trend to the market’s performance in 2019, where strong gains in the first half of the year were followed by a significant correction. Additionally, Tim Kravchunovsky, CEO of the decentralized telecommunications network Chirp, suggested that cryptocurrency assets could recover faster than other risk assets, similar to what occurred in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. He emphasized that macroeconomic factors are influencing the market, but a decoupling of crypto from traditional stocks could lead to a swift recovery.
The similarities between Bitcoin’s current decline and past market cycles have led to speculation about a potential recovery. While some analysts caution that further losses could occur, others remain optimistic about a rebound, particularly if cryptocurrencies decouple from traditional market trends.
