Bitcoin’s price trajectory for the 2025 market cycle is becoming a hot topic among analysts, with predictions starting at a “minimum” of $175,000 and potentially soaring above $461,000. Despite some market turbulence, strong buying pressure and on-chain trends point to a bullish outlook for the next cycle.
Analyst Targets: $173K to $461K for Bitcoin
Danny Marques, a researcher specializing in Bitcoin mining and market cycles, has analyzed BTC’s post-halving performance using Fibonacci extensions. Marques’ data reveals that Bitcoin historically tops at Fibonacci levels of 3.618, 2.272, and 1.618 in its previous cycles of 2012, 2016, and 2020. This observation forms the basis for his 2025 price prediction:
- Minimum target: $173,646 (1.618 Fibonacci level)
- Upper target: $461,135 (2.272 Fibonacci level)
Marques stated, “Assuming that the macro does NOT deteriorate like in 2020, Bitcoin could land anywhere between these Fibonacci levels.”
Other studies support these projections. For instance, research from Q3 2023 using “exponential decay fit analysis” predicted Bitcoin’s price could reach at least $199,998 by late 2025. A more conservative maximum target from this study capped at $288,211, slightly lower than Marques’ upper range.
On-Chain Trends: Miners Hold Tight
As Bitcoin recently crossed the $100,000 mark on Dec. 5, profit-taking activities emerged, with long-term holders selling 827,783 BTC near $99,200. However, miners appear more confident in holding their Bitcoin, signaling a shift from previous cycles.
An anonymous analyst from On-Chain College noted that, unlike January 2021 (when miners applied intense selling pressure with net position changes reaching 41,000 BTC), miners in 2024 are demonstrating “diamond hands.” This behavior suggests they anticipate higher prices, reducing market supply and potentially fueling further upside.
Bitcoin’s ability to maintain daily closes above $95,000 since Nov. 27 underscores strong investor demand. Analysts attribute this buying pressure to the upcoming halving event in 2024, growing institutional adoption, and favorable macroeconomic conditions.
