As the United States presidential election on November 5 approaches, Bitcoin is expected to experience heightened volatility, with analysts predicting a potential 10% price swing in either direction. The anticipation of an uncertain outcome has already pushed Bitcoin’s volatility index to its highest level in three months, according to data from crypto derivatives platform Deribit.
Election Outcome Could Spur Major Price Movement
Pseudonymous crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades recently told his 389,000 followers on social media platform X that Bitcoin’s price could make a significant move, depending on which candidate wins. He stated, “There’s a good possibility Bitcoin will see at least a 10% move to either direction depending on who ends up winning the election this week.”
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $68,682, down slightly by 0.5% in the past 24 hours. This price follows a recent peak near Bitcoin’s all-time high of $74,649 on October 29. However, the asset quickly pulled back amid election-driven uncertainty.
Key Levels to Watch: $65,000 and $74,000
IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore commented in a November 4 note that Bitcoin needs to break above the critical $74,000 resistance level to confirm a long-term uptrend, potentially opening a path to $80,000. However, Sycamore warned that a retreat below $65,000 could indicate the recent rally’s weakness, pushing Bitcoin back into a seven-month downward trend channel.
How the Election May Impact Bitcoin’s Price
The broader sentiment around Bitcoin heading into the election remains optimistic. Many market watchers believe risk assets like Bitcoin could continue on a bullish trend regardless of the outcome. However, each candidate’s stance on crypto policy may influence short-term price action.
- Donald Trump: Seen as more favorable to crypto, Trump has pledged to support and foster innovation in the U.S. crypto industry if elected, which could drive short-term enthusiasm among crypto investors.
- Kamala Harris: Harris has been less vocal about crypto but has expressed a commitment to supporting digital assets and AI investment. Her administration may take a more cautious approach compared to Trump but still offers some positive signals for the industry.
The Federal Reserve’s Rate Policy and Its Impact on Crypto
Beyond the election, market participants are also closely watching the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, which could further influence Bitcoin’s price. After a 50-basis-point interest rate cut on September 18, the Fed is expected to continue easing rates, which would be seen as a positive sign for crypto. Lower rates tend to diminish the appeal of traditional savings options, encouraging investors to explore higher-risk assets like Bitcoin.
Summary: A Volatile Week Ahead
With election uncertainty, key technical price levels, and evolving Federal Reserve policies, Bitcoin investors should brace for significant volatility in the days ahead. A clear breakout above $74,000 or a drop below $65,000 could set the tone for the asset’s next major move, potentially shaped by the outcome of one of the most closely watched U.S. elections in recent history.
