Bitcoin could potentially reach a cycle peak of $130,000 to $150,000 between late August and early September 2025 if it follows the trajectory of previous post-halving bull markets, according to renowned crypto trader Peter Brandt.
The Significance of Bitcoin Halving
The latest Bitcoin halving, which occurred on April 20, 2024, is an event coded into Bitcoin’s protocol that occurs approximately every four years, reducing mining rewards by 50%. Historically, these halving events have been closely aligned with the timing of Bitcoin’s bull market cycles.
In a report published on June 2, Brandt noted that halving dates have often marked almost perfect symmetry within past bull market cycles. He explained that the Bitcoin halving date usually sits nearly in the middle of the period between the start of a bull market and its peak.
Historical Patterns
According to Brandt’s analysis, the last Bitcoin bull market began about 16 months before the May 11, 2020, halving and ended approximately 18 months after that. Brandt pointed out that the two previous halvings, on July 9, 2016, and November 28, 2012, followed a similar pattern.
Chart Analysis
Brandt’s chart shows Bitcoin halving dates and the corresponding starts and peaks of bull cycles. He suggests that if this pattern continues, the next bull market cycle high should occur in late August or early September 2025.
While acknowledging that “no method of analysis is fool-proof” for predicting Bitcoin’s cycle highs, Brandt believes that past highs have followed a similar growth pattern. If this trend continues, he estimates a bull market high in the $130,000 to $150,000 range.
Also Read: Senator Ted Cruz Buys Bitcoin Miners
Current Market Conditions
Brandt’s analysis identifies December 17, 2022, as the start of the current bull market when BTC was trading around $16,800. Since then, Bitcoin has gained over 300%, reaching a high of $67,882, according to Cointelegraph Markets Pro data. Despite a decline from its March 14 all-time high of $73,679, Brandt suggests there’s a 25% chance that Bitcoin has already hit its bull market peak, noting that each bull cycle’s gains are diminishing compared to the previous one.
Potential for “Exponential Decay”
If Bitcoin fails to set a new all-time high and drops below $55,000, Brandt warns that he would increase the likelihood that the cryptocurrency is experiencing “exponential decay,” indicating a significant and prolonged downturn.
