Bitcoin’s price recently dipped below $64,000, breaking a critical support level for traders and raising concerns of a potential further decline toward $60,000. This drop marks a significant event, as it suggests a possible correction to levels unseen in 49 days.
Critical Support Level Breached
On June 21, CryptoQuant highlighted the dip in a post on X, stating, “Bitcoin is trading below the critical support level of $65.8K, now below $64K.” The firm added, “Falling under this threshold suggests a potential 8%-12% correction toward $60K,” a level last seen on May 3 when Bitcoin traded at $59,122, as per CoinMarketCap data.
Short-Term Holder Realized Price
On June 22, Bitcoin’s price dropped 2% to $63,442, falling below the short-term holder realized price (STH-RP) of $64,230, according to LookIntoBitcoin data. The STH-RP represents the aggregate cost basis of more speculative Bitcoin holders, or wallets that have stored Bitcoin for 155 days or less. Historically, this level has acted as solid support, particularly during bull markets since early 2023.
However, recent breaches of the STH-RP have raised concerns. “Bitcoin’s short-term holder realized price generally acts as support in upward trending markets,” pseudonymous crypto trader Crypto Caesar noted on June 19. LookIntoBitcoin founder Phillip Swift added, “Let’s see if it holds.”
A potential move down to $60,000 could result in the liquidation of $1.64 billion in long positions.
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Market Sentiment and Analysis
Bitcoin has been hovering around $65,000 for an extended period, leading traders to speculate on its next move, especially following significant events like the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States in January and the Bitcoin halving in April.
Bitcoin is currently in its longest consolidation period of 92 days. Analysts believe this extended steadiness could set the asset up for a “massive upside rally.” Founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju, suggested that “Bitcoin network fundamentals could support a market cap three times its current size compared to the last cyclical top.”
On May 8, Young Ju referred to a chart comparing BTC’s price and the associated hash rate to market capitalization ratio. He highlighted Bitcoin’s ongoing volatility and the resilience of the network. If this ratio continues to grow, Young Ju believes it could potentially sustain Bitcoin’s price up to $265,000.
