Approximately $2.7 billion in Bitcoin and Ether options are set to expire on May 24, providing valuable insights into current crypto market sentiment.
According to Greeks.live on platform X, 21,000 Bitcoin options are about to expire with a put/call ratio of 0.88, indicating a near-even balance between buyers and sellers, with a slight tilt towards call options. The maximum pain point, or the price at which most option buyers would incur losses, is $67,000, representing a nominal value of $1.4 billion.
While this upcoming 21,000 contract expiry is significant, it is overshadowed by a much larger event on May 31, when $4.3 billion worth of options are set to expire, according to Deribit.
Open Interest and Market Sentiment
Deribit data shows that long positions dominate open interest (OI), with $830 million tied to the $70,000 strike price. Higher strike prices also have substantial OI, notably $843 million at the $100,000 mark, indicating a bullish inclination among traders. The $60,000 strike price stands out for put contracts with $388 million in open interest, showing notable interest in this price point.
This substantial OI suggests that many contracts remain unsettled, indicating bullish confidence in significantly higher Bitcoin prices, as OI represents the unresolved value of contracts awaiting settlement.
Also Read: Bitmex Dives into Crypto Options Trading with Zero Fees
Ether Options Expiry Details
The options expiry event also includes 350,000 Ether contracts, representing a notional value of $1.3 billion. With a put/call ratio of 0.58 and a max pain point of $3,200, the data suggests a slightly bullish tone, with more call options expiring than put options.
Ethereum’s Market Activity
Ethereum recently led a crypto rally, inspired by progress in ETF approvals, with a one-day 20% rise. Short-term options implied volatility (IV) for Ethereum reached 150% at one point, significantly higher than Bitcoin’s current IV for the same period.
However, the divergence between Bitcoin and Ethereum is now evident. While Ethereum maintains strong bullish sentiment, sustaining high IV levels for each major term is challenging due to overall market trading and market structure. This situation suggests that calendar spreads might be a better trading strategy. In contrast, Bitcoin’s market appears more balanced between long and short positions, with stronger selling pressures on call options.